Australian Inflation Trend Boost RBA’s Rate Cut Prospects 

Core Inflation Drop Strengthens Case for RBA Action 

In November, Australian consumer prices saw an uptick largely due to an associated rise in the cost of electricity. This edged inflation up from a three-year low, in turn bolstering the case to cut interest rates as early as next month due to the decline in in core inflation. According to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the monthly consumer price index (CPI) went up on a year-on-year basis and stood at 2.3% in November as compared to the 2.1% during October and slightly higher than the 2.2% market expectations. 

(Australia CPI y/y Chart, Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics) 

It is important to note that the trimmed mean which serves as significant indicator for core inflation has also gradually depreciated to an annual rate of 3.2% down from 3.5% which is an optimistic sign acquiescent with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2% to 3%. If the RBA decides to release the quarterly report, it is expected to give RBA a boost in overall confidence of its inflation mandate. 

The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept the Australian official target cash rate steady at 4.35% since September 2022, saying that this level is adequate in steering inflation back to within its target range and at the same time maintaining the employment growth. The current cash rate indicates a huge shift from the record low of 0.1% that was registered during the pandemic because of a more conservative approach from the central bank. In any case, due to the economic activity slowing down, the RBA quietly said something dovish about its monetary policy late last month. 

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