CHF Fell Sharply, NOT Thoroughly 

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USDCHF for DEC 13, 2024. 

USDCHF Key Takeaways 

• SNB interest rate cut: Swiss National Bank cut a sharp 50 basis point, the market expected a 25-basis point cut, the bank said it was ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary. 

• Expected depreciation of the Swiss franc: The appreciation of the Swiss franc is another headache for Swiss exporters. With weak European demand, the appreciation of the Swiss franc makes its export products more expensive. The Swiss National Bank has always hoped that the Swiss franc will depreciate and expand exports, so the unexpected interest rate cut is to widen the US-Swiss interest rate gap, thereby preemptively curbing the excessive strength of the Swiss franc. 

USDCHF Technical Analysis 

USDCHF Daily Chart Insights 

(USDCHF Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator once again sent an upward signal below the 50 median line, suggesting that short-term bullish forces have the upper hand. However, based on the fact that the previous decline did not enter the oversold area, the exchange rate adjustment cycle was too short, and whether it could break through the previous high still needs to be vigilant. 

• MA support: USD/CHF hit the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward trend since September, which is also the price where the MA group intersects. The strong support effect makes the exchange rate rebound upward in the short term. It is worth noting that the adjustment cycle is less than 20 trading days, and the exchange rate may encounter resistance and fall again from the previous high. 

USDCHF 1-hour Chart Analysis 

(USDCHF H1 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator sends a short signal in the overbought area, and the exchange rate may adjust downward during the Asian session. Although the indicator currently shows signs of rising again, it is necessary to be vigilant about the top signal that forms a top divergence with the exchange rate. 

• Support price: The current exchange rate is adjusting and fluctuating at a high level, and the fair value gap (FVG) is below. Once it falls below FVG, the next target will be the upward channel line, which is also near the red 33-period moving average. 

USDCHF Pivot Indicator 

(USDCHF M30 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets APP) 

• According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 0.8870, 

• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 0.8870, first target 0.8955, second target 0.8985; 

• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 0.8870, first target 0.8845, second target 0.8815. 

Conclusion 

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