Category Archives: Analysis

Focus on AUD/JPY. Fundamentally speaking, Japan’s inflation has not declined, which increases the probability of the Bank of Japan’s future tightening policy. After a long-term depreciation, the yen has space for a short-term rebound. AUD/JPY has less room for arbitrage than USD/JPY. With strong USD, please watch out for AUD/JPY bear. Technically speaking, the AUD/JPY […]

Let’s turn the clock back to the end of last year. At that time, most investors and economists predicted that the US economy would inevitably suffer a recession in 2023 because of the environment of high interest rates. But today, at the end of July, the Federal Reserve once again raised the federal funds rate […]

Focus on gold. Fundamentally speaking, the US released retail sales in July increased by 0.7% mom. The figure for June was also revised up to 0.3% from 0.2%, suggesting the U.S. economy continued to expand in 3Q and avoid recession. Consequently, inflation stays still in the short run.  With demand remaining resilient and labor market […]

Focus on EUR/USD. Fundamentally speaking, although Fed’s rate hike coming to an end, the U.S. dollar index continues to rise. According to data released by the CFTC last week, the short positions fell to the lowest level in eight weeks. Short-covering is fueling a rebound in the U.S. dollar index as hedge funds continue to […]

Focus on EUR/USD. On fundamentals, last week PMI figures in the euro zone reconfirmed the pressure on the European economy, with the manufacturing sector recording 42.7 in July, the lowest manufacturing PMI since 2020. The PMI for the services sector was revised down to 50.9 in July, the lowest up to date. In this context, […]

Focus on GBP/AUD today. On fundamentals, there is no notable financial data due today. The difference in monetary policy between the UK and Australia will control the currency exchange rate in the short run. (Blue vs Black, BoE rate vs RBA rate) The BoE raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to the highest […]

Focus on GBP/AUD today. On Fundamentals, BoE raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps yesterday, reaching the highest level since 2008. Rising interest rates mean higher borrowing costs, meaning more pressure on many homeowners. The UK continues to be on the edge of recession. Separately, RBA’s monetary report suggests suspending interest rate hikes, however, […]

Focus on GBP/USD today. Fundamentally speaking, the BoE and Fed are heading for a showdown now, and this is the only factor that affect the exchange rate between the two. First, the BoE tightening policy has not yet been clarified, While the Fed’s rate hike has come to an end. Second, although the probability of […]

Focus on USD/JPY On fundamentals, last Friday, BoJ revealed its monetary policy. The interest rate was unchanged as expected, however, the YCC curve surprised the market. Although BoJ has made a flexible adjustment on YCC, the targeted yield has not floated accordingly. The market describes BoJ as dovish and expects monetary easing policies to exist […]